Archive for July 22nd, 2009

Free Odds Aren’t Really Free

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

Question from a reader:”Kim, I understand you wrote a book on craps.  I don’t know much about dice and have ordered your book but what can you tell me about free odds?  Thanks.”

 

My answer is an excerpt from my book, Practical Craps.   Best of luck to you and please don’t spend money you cannot afford to lose, and in this case, that means generally ANY money.  Ah well, for those who are interested and as an incentive to get my book, here is the gist of “free odds”:
First off, free odds aren’t really free.  It isn’t like the casino will pay you for nothing.  The expression “free odds” means that there are bets you can make that will pay you the true odds if the decision goes your way on the dice.

You don’t normally see them on the Craps layout because the casinos don’t encourage these bets.  They don’t make money for the casino.  Generally speaking dice play doesn’t offer the same return on investment as a bank of slot machines that don’t require human intervention on a regular basis (other than to fix jams or collect money).

Some casinos offer multiple odds (5x, 10x, etc) but that is usually to get players into their casinos.  You can also lose a lot of money playing large bets without a deep enough bankroll to handle the swings in the dice.

Basically, on a pass line or come point bet (once a bet has been moved to the point number on the top of the craps layout) you can make an odds bet.

You are paid even money on a pass line or come point, right?  On an odds bet, you place more money but that money (which can be removed any time before the dice are rolled) will be paid off at true odds.

The odds bet requires you to have a larger starting bankroll and you need to know what the odds are on the bets to make the appropriate sized bet.

You will also hear on come-out rolls the dealer yell “Odds off”.  That just means that on the come-out rolls, in case the shooter throws a 7 and you lose other bets that are up from the come bets, you won’t lose your odds bets. 

You can call the bet on or off and the dealer will throw a chip on your bet saying it is “WORKING” or not.

So how do we “take odds” when we are betting with the dice or “lay odds” if we are betting against the dice?

Simple, we just adjust our bet to the multiple that would give us a correct payoff.

So if we were betting $10 on the pass line.  On the come out roll the shooter threw a 10.  We could go ahead and place $10 behind the line as our “single odds” bet.  That means that if the shooter makes his point of ten.  We get paid $10 for our $10 pass line bet and since the odds are 2:1 against us, we would make $20 for the back line, free odds bet.  Our total winnings for both bets would be $30.

If we are playing with “double odds” that would mean we could go up to $20 behind the line.  We would be betting $30 ($10 on the Pass line and $20 free odds).  If the shooter throws a 10 we win $10 for the Pass line bet and then we get $40 for our double odds bet for a total winnings of $50.

Now the reality check is in either case if the shooter throws a 7 we lose both our pass line bet and our odds bet for a loss of either $20 or $30 respectively.

Getting it?  It really isn’t complicated once you start paying attention to the numbers.  You just have to be brutally honest with yourself that you are playing in a game where the odds are stacked against you.

LAYING ODDS

If you are planning on playing the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come, you can lay the odds.  It requires a very large bankroll but the law of averages is on your side if you have survived the come out roll.

In the example of the 10 – if you are betting on the Don’t Pass for $10 and you have a point of 10, you can lay $20 and the dealer will show you how to stack your chips.  If the 7 shows up, you win $10 for the pass line bet, plus $10 for your odds bet (remember you are covering the OPPOSITE of the 2:1 since the odds are in your favor).

If the shooter throws his 10, you lose your $10 bet and your $20 lay odds bet.

Same situation, just the other side of it.

Here is a table of what to bet for odds:

TAKING SINGLE ODDS

4 or 10  2:1
$10 bet   $10 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $20= $30

5 or 9  3:2
$10 bet   $10 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $15 = $25

6 or 8  6:5
$10 bet   $10 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $12 = $22

 

Remember that in all of our bets, if you win, you also get back all the money that you put up for the bet.  The reason I mention it is that you shouldn’t include it as winnings.

Because of the uneven payout ratios you should learn the odds and remember to make the appropriate size bets in order to get paid off correctly if you are playing odds bets.  Remember also that you can lower or take your odds bets down at any time.  You cannot do that with your pass line bets once established.  You can take down your don’t pass bets but why would you want to?  You work so hard to make it through the come out roll the odds are now in your favor!

LAYING SINGLE ODDS

4 or 10  1:2
$10 bet   $20 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $10 = $20

5 or 9  2:3
$10 bet   $15 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $10 = $20

6 or 8  5:6
$10 bet   $12 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $10 = $20
In the short run, you can win or lose a lot of money taking or laying odds.  It depends on how the shooter is throwing, the trend on the table and of course, what is your bankroll.

Don’t play beyond your means.  There will ALWAYS be another craps game.  It is very easy – easier than in poker – to get caught up in the energy and excitement of a craps game and throw all caution to the wind.  Please don’t do it. 
Notice how the odds table work?  The 4/10 numbers true odds are 2:1, the 5/9 numbers true odds are 3:2 and the 6/8 numbers true odds are 6:5.  I have adjusted the amounts based on $5 minimum bets for the tables to give you an idea of seeing how you get paid back.

When you lay odds you are just covering the bets by putting up what you would pay out if you were the house.  It is a lot of money to win a little bit of money, but remember, statistically, once you make it past the come out roll, the odds are in your favor (though as we discussed, in the long run, all things being equal, you will average out if you are betting the same way over thousands of dice rolls).

 

TAKING DOUBLE ODDS

4 or 10  2:1
$10 bet   $20 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $40 = $50

5 or 9  3:2
$10 bet   $20 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $30 = $40

6 or 8  6:5
$10 bet   $25 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $30 = $40

LAYING DOUBLE ODDS

4 or 10  1:2
$10 bet   $40 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $20 = $30

5 or 9  2:3
$10 bet   $30 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $20 = $30

6 or 8  5:6
$10 bet   $30 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $25 = $35
Did you notice that the 6 or 8 bets were not correct?  I want to see if you are paying attention!
Some casinos will let you go up to $25 as a bet for 6:5 on the 6 or 8 if the table offers 2X odds.  On the 6 or 8 they may allow 2.5X odds since it is easy to pay off.  Ask the dealer before making the bet to see what they say.
Are you getting it?  Or is it still confusing?  It took me several trips to casinos and playing a bit till I understood it.  Please re-read whatever you aren’t getting and work the numbers yourself so you will see that it isn’t that complicated, it is simply a matter of familiarizing yourself with the numbers, their combinations and pay-offs.

Some players make bets on the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come in multiples of $6 in order to make their odds bets easier.  Whatever works for you.  My suggestion would be to start out small and go easy on the betting and read more about it in my book, Practical Craps.   Good luck and have fun.

And don’t gamble with bread and egg money!!!!!  It should be fun and not a business.

July 22 2009

Also, please  don’t quite go anywhere yet.  Having some tax issues or tax questions?  Any problems with trying to make it through the financial Depression we are in that is making you depressed?  Please read on.

I am expanding  my practice and taking on new tax clients.  If you are interested in having somebody who is a successful businessman and tax professional with integrity review your returns discretely and see if your tax guy or gal is doing a good or goofy job, please drop me an email or post a comment with your contact information and time.

I have experience in international business, small businesses, partnerships, multi-state tax returns (they can get complicated) and anything else you can probably think of.

I also do business consulting and have ran several businesses (still running a few) myself so you are in good hands.

If you are looking for a day job, part time work, suggestions for saving money or investing, please check out my book, Practical Money Making, that is listed right after his paragraph in this very post. There are some great suggestions and ways to survive the Depression we are in.

Practical Money Making-Surviving Recession, Layoffs, Credit Problems, Generating Passive Income Streams, Working Full Time or Part Time and Retirement

Interested in any of my books? You may want to make a stop over here. Please click through to purchase my books and some other interesting items that actually ARE on sale.

Have you read my book, “Bad Tax Idea, Good Tax Idea“? Please order it today. The tips inside can save you hundreds if not thousands of dollars! Tax planning should be done year round and not just two weeks into January or later.

Part of all the proceeds from the sales of that book go to Rett Syndrome research. One girl is born with Rett Syndrome worldwide every fifteen minutes. My daughter Arianna has Rett.

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

Free Odds Aren’t Really Free

Market Strategies Jul 22 2009 and Create More Jobs

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

Question from a reader:”Market is recovering.  I don’t trust it.  Kim, what should I do? Also, what is this about more unemployment?  I can see the stimulus isn’t working as fast as people thought.”

My answer is do your own due diligence, keep your money in cash if you are unsure about the future and remember that you should be writing your Congressmen, Governor and President to create more jobs – now!  Aren’t you tired of them saying that there will be more unemployment next year?  Granted it takes time to get the economy to recover but all branches of government, all political parties and all players need to know that without the average man or woman spending their money, the economy isn’t going to move.  How about creating some more projects like they did in the Great Depression of the 1930s?

Organizations like the TVA, Tennessee Valley Authority, were created to build dams and work on the infrastructure.  We need lots of those organizations created and going now.  In order for the Fed and the respective State governments to collect taxes they need the general population to be making income so that it can be taxed.  With unemployment looking at around 20% realistically – and maybe even higher – it is a tough way to squeeze blood out of a stone.

Okay, so listen up political leaders and get more jobs created at the grass roots level.  We all need to work and keep working!  Hello?  Is anybody in office out there hearing me?

Ahem.  Okay, back to the other part of your question.  My take is that we are in more of a continued sideways movement.  I am not an investment specialist and I invite and suggest you take my advice with a grain of salt but I am thinking that things will be sideways for awhile.  The doom and gloom people are predicting the next big drop – I think we will get one but not for a few months at the earliest and the Fed is optimistic that we are going to recover in the last quarter – I don’t see that easily happening either with so many people in American and throughout the world out of work.

Suggestions for things to invest in?

I would say you may want to check here.  I always get leery when everybody – pundits, the Internet alleged gurus and people as a group say something is going one way.  Bells and whistles go off in my head and I tend to look at things moving the other way – a contrarian point of view to be sure but I really believe that once everybody else is jumping on the bandwagon, in this high speed electronic age, the information is staledated.  I love that word.

 

Staledated goes back to the days – and still applies – when you would write a check and the check would only be good for 90 days and then have to be reissued because the banks wouldn’t cash it.  More times than not, if a bank teller – a human one – didn’t check the date, it would go through and still be cashed.  The check would go stale like bad bread.  You would have to issue another.

Internet information and investing advice is pretty much the same story.  With the speed that things change it is pretty hard to stay current or give any kind of suggestion that is meaningful for something other than a very specific time period and a very specific topic.  That works for me – it just means that you and I have to be willing to do a lot of our own research and not rely on other people’s suggestions, right?

Just like we are constantly retraining ourselves so that we ourselves don’t become staledated, we need to be reviewing fresh information and making realistic assessments of the business community’s future and our own financial future and well-being.  Not an easy task these days to say the least.

I also want to really stress that we need to get manufacturing back in the United States and get it going.  If you are still reading this and want some more ranting, I also think we need to get more natural resournces and start storing them here because China certainly is going after raw materials and storing them.

Here in California they have opened up for the immediate future some offshore drilling again or at least that is proposed as of the California State Assembly and their plans to balance the budget.  I am for it and sorry if people’s views of the ocean is going to look a little blotchy but we need to get things going.  Also, more money for solar initiatives would be appreciated.

Kudos to the companies that are working to get things solar powered in climates that support the heat.  For the places with wind, I think despite some people’s protests that it isn’t energy efficient I think it is a great way to start taking some of the energy pain off of fossil fuels and our reliance on things that may be harder to get in the future.  For now and the immediate future, the sun and wind are freely available.

Best of luck to all of us and keep the posts coming.  I am still working on my next book and I have some other plans for subsequent tomes.  Anything you want me to write about?  Post me a note and please let me know.

July 22 2009

Also, please  don’t quite go anywhere yet.  Having some tax issues or tax questions?  Any problems with trying to make it through the financial Depression we are in that is making you depressed?  Please read on.

I am expanding  my practice and taking on new tax clients.  If you are interested in having somebody who is a successful businessman and tax professional with integrity review your returns discretely and see if your tax guy or gal is doing a good or goofy job, please drop me an email or post a comment with your contact information and time.

I have experience in international business, small businesses, partnerships, multi-state tax returns (they can get complicated) and anything else you can probably think of.

I also do business consulting and have ran several businesses (still running a few) myself so you are in good hands.

If you are looking for a day job, part time work, suggestions for saving money or investing, please check out my book, Practical Money Making, that is listed right after his paragraph in this very post. There are some great suggestions and ways to survive the Depression we are in.

Practical Money Making-Surviving Recession, Layoffs, Credit Problems, Generating Passive Income Streams, Working Full Time or Part Time and Retirement

Interested in any of my books? You may want to make a stop over here. Please click through to purchase my books and some other interesting items that actually ARE on sale.

Have you read my book, “Bad Tax Idea, Good Tax Idea“? Please order it today. The tips inside can save you hundreds if not thousands of dollars! Tax planning should be done year round and not just two weeks into January or later.

Part of all the proceeds from the sales of that book go to Rett Syndrome research. One girl is born with Rett Syndrome worldwide every fifteen minutes. My daughter Arianna has Rett.

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

Market Strategies Jul 22 2009 and Create More Jobs