Martindale System That Has To Win But Won’t

Here is a question posted in the craps newsgroup back in Feb 1998.  It still holds true today and I wanted to post it on my site since eventually it may roll off of the archives. 

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From the poster, p-jay:

Don’t hold me to this system, but I believe it has to work if you have the money to back it.  It’s very simple, and is similar to betting red,
black, odd or even on a roulette table.  Start out betting say $10 on
the don’t pass line.  I like to use the don’t pass line because a table
is normally ‘cold’ more than it is ‘hot’.  If there is a seven out, you
win $10.  Bet $10 on the don’t pass line again.  Let’s say this time the
shooter makes the point.  This time, bet $20.  If they seven-out you
made another $10 but if they make the point, you need to double-up
again.  EVERYONE SEVEN-OUT’S EVENTUALLY, right?  So, technically, this
system HAS to work if you have the money to back it.  Everytime they
shooter seven-outs, you win $10.  I am too scared to do this, since
doubling-up can get expensive.  After about 8 rolls your bet is close to
$2,000.  Here’s something I think everyone should already know, but for
those who don’t, listen up.  The table limits at the casino I frequent
are $2,000.  So, does that mean you can’t bet more than $2,000 at one
time?  Yes and No.  Beating this is very simple, you can bet up to
$2,000 but your friend standing next to you can bet up to $2,000 (of
your own money) also, so now you’re betting twice the table limit.  Just
make sure you have a trustworthy friend 🙂  So, back to my system,
doesn’t this HAVE to work?

-Scott in Chicago

My response was:

p-jay wrote:
> Don’t hold me to this system, but I believe it has to work if you have
> the money to back it.  

Kim: Okay, I won’t hold you to the system, Scott, but I don’t think it will
work even if you have the money to play it.

 

>It’s very simple, and is similar to betting  >red, black, odd or even >on a roulette table.  Start out betting say $10 >on the don’t pass >line.  I like to use the don’t pass line because a >table is normally >’cold’ more than it is ‘hot’.  If there is a seven >out, you win $10.  >Bet $10 on the don’t pass line again.  Let’s say >this time the shooter >makes the point.  This time, bet $20.  If they seven-out you made >another $10 but if they make the point, you need to double-up again.  >EVERYONE SEVEN-OUT’S EVENTUALLY, right?  

From Kim:
Scott,
        I’ll try to be the most polite of the group and assume that you are
unaware that this is a Martindale System or are just joking with us.
Yes, everyone Seven’s Out but what if the shooter makes Eleven Points in
a row?    Even at cold tables you’ll have one person who can
statistically come along and until he lets go of the bones, sweet talk
the dice into several successful passes.  

And what happens to you at that, uh, point?

You’ve just been nailed at the tables for $2000.

Check out Jim’s site for Craps systems and search Deja News on
Martindale or Progression or Progressive Betting Systems. All
Math Betting Weenie-ness aside, does it sound right to you to invest
$2000, having the money at risk most of the time to win back $2010?
I’m sure others will post similar obseverations, so I apologize if I am
redundant..    

 

>So, technically, this system HAS to work if you have the money to back >it.  

From Kim:
Except the table limits will cream you by preventing you from going to
the limits even if you could. (Except probably at the Horseshoe
in LV where they would let you knock yourself out playing this system –
so you don’t need an accomplice to play your money).

 

>Everytime they shooter seven-outs, you win $10.  I am too scared to do >this, since doubling-up can get expensive.  

From Kim:
As well you should be.  But, as I’m often fond of suggesting, why don’t
you try it on a smaller scale say for $200 at a cheapy stakes 25 cent
table and prove to yourself that you’ll get nailed?  I’ve always said
that everybody should get crucified by a progressive system once in
their life just to see that life does not always perform to one’s (or
math calculated) expectations.

 

>After about 8 rolls your bet is close to $2,000.  Here’s something I >think everyone should already know, but for those who don’t, listen up. > The table limits at the casino I frequent are $2,000.

From Kim:
Out of morbid curiosity, what casinos have limits so low?  Are these riverboat casinos?  Most of the casinos I have heard of have the bankrolls to cover larger amounts than that.

 

> So, does that mean you can’t bet more than $2,000 at one
> time?  Yes and No.  Beating this is very simple, you can bet up to
> $2,000 but your friend standing next to you can bet up to $2,000 (of
> your own money) also, so now you’re betting twice the table limit.  >Just make sure you have a trustworthy friend 🙂  So, back to my system,
> doesn’t this HAVE to work?

From Kim:
Yes, except for the time the shooter throws 25 passes in a row and you have lost your $2000 from your hands and the $2000 from your trusted friend.

So you are risking most of the time $10 – $4000 for a projected return of $10 profit and a downside risk of all of your money.  Hmmmm…..

Now, you might ask, “Kim, what are the chances of a shooter making a point 25 times in a row?”

I’d say, “I think they are in the neighborhood of 1 out of 33,554,432” (based on a binary progression for all the Math Oscar Meyer / Ball Park Franks out there).

Most of the time you will win your $10 but what about the time that you’ll get some shooter who will perhaps not throw 25 passes but enough to shrink your bankroll at whatever lower dollar limit you are playing with?

If you are after a ten dollar rate of return on $4000 you are better off putting the $4000 in a mutual fund or even a stock index or a bond fund that pays dividends monthly.  For recreational craps and the intent of making money while having fun, why not try a system that will give you some more money for the risks you are taking?

But what the heck do I know, right?  Don’t take my word for it, grab four grand and give it a whirl!

Good luck with whatever you decide, Scott.

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Basically, take what I said and apply to it your situation if you come up with any crazy ideas when attempting to beat the odds at a casino.

Kim Greenblatt

Questions or comments? Let me know about them! Thanks for taking the time to visit and for more information or to get back to the beginning of the blog, go here.

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