Posts Tagged ‘honest with yourself’

Hold’em Turn Rats As Bad As River Rats and Random Reinforcement

Sunday, August 3rd, 2008

If you play Texas Hold’em, you have no doubt heard of the term, “River Rat”.  That is the unglamorous phrase used for people who by any stretch of the imagination should have folded their cards earlier but by sticking around and throwing in their money, they end up winning the hand.  

You may have encountered “Turn Rats” in low limit no limit games or games where people want action:

You are in the big blind at a $40NL table. Players just come in and no raises.  The stacks are all roughly the same.  Here is our flop:

You bet $5 and everybody folds except one player who calls.

 

              

You                                              Your Opponent

You are the favorite here but since it is low limit, no fold’em $40 hold em you aren’t sure if this player is holding pocket queens.  Well, you are actually.  He didn’t go all in so what can you do so you don’t make it worth his while to stay in the hand?

You can try to raise him $10 and in this case, and he may call.  If you go all in and he has enough money in his pocket to rebuy, he might call you to try and catch a miracle card.

With players like this who are action addicts, they will call you no matter what.

And if the turn comes like this (and it will once in awhile):

 

You will have to just force a smile, force the acid from coming up your throat and watch yourself lose no matter what.  The comfort in this is that players like your opponent will go bust and a lot of times in the same session after a few hours.  They have a lot of lucky hours but they might end up with unlucky days when the dust settles.

I’ve talked to some players and for the most part, they still remember the few times that they win with cards that come at the last minute.  I am tempted to ask some of them, and I do this of my friends, “But how many times have you tried that and lost?”  Generally you get a “I dunno” and a shrug of the shoulders.  It is random reinforcement.  People tend to remember the things they want rather than what actually has happened.

Hey, the truth can hurt but it is better in business and in gambling that you at least be honest
with yourself so you don’t end up bluffing yourself out of your money in the long run.

 

Kim Greenblatt

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