Posts Tagged ‘Kim Isaac Greenblatt’

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Deal Or No Deal Could Mean Meal or No Meal

Monday, November 10th, 2008

Question from a reader:”Kim, so which is it with Deal or No Deal?  Would you take the offer or go for the case?  I figure I’d ask you in case I went on the show.”

My answer:  I am honored that you are asking my opinion.  To be fair, I think it has been covered pretty extensively over the last few years but in case you haven’t been reading about it, haven’t looked for it or don’t trust the television show itself, I will go over the math results with you.  There has been a lot of controvery and a lot of what I gently call, “bad math”.  It boils down to what amount would you feel comfortable receiving and at what point do you put greed aside to make a year or maybe several year’s income (maybe less after income taxes) in one sitting. 

Can you really actually win the big money?  Sure, it is possible, though not probable.  If you feel lucky, you follow your heart.  If you are feeling confused, let me throw some numbers and profitable common sense at you and you can make your own informed decision when you make it on the show.  Factor in that even if you walk away with “only” $10,000 after taxes that could still be around $7000 and that could cover a few rent or mortgage payments and leave some money for some salads, steaks, hamburgers, tacos, ice cream sundaes and/or french fries.  French fries with ice cream tastes great!

 

1.  You start out in the average “Deal or No Deal” game with 26 suitcases with the following amounts. We aren’t talking about the specials where they jack up the amounts.  The same math can be adjusted to handle those cases as well if you are fortunate to get on the show.

$.01           $1000
$1              $5000
$5              $10000
$10            $25000
$25            $50000
$50            $75000
$75            $100000
$100          $200000
$200          $300000
$300          $400000
$400          $500000
$500          $750000
$750          $1000000

Note:  The EXPECTED VALUE at this time, if no cases are opened is about $131,477.54.    That is the the average dollar amount remaining in the cases.

The formula for calculating the expected value is:

Expected Value (x) = (.01 * 1/26) + (1.00 * 1/26) + (5.00 * 1/26) + ……..+ (1,000,000 * 1/26)

Please feel free to do the math yourself and if I am off, let me know and embarass me in my comment sections!

2.  Each turn, if you accept a deal/offer from the banker that is generally less than the average dollar amount you are considered by some as a ”weakling”.  Considering though that even several thousand dollars can change your lifestyle, especially in the recession/depression we are in right now, I don’t buy into that philosophy.  Math people would tease you as well as the studio audience into “going for it-it is a once in a lifetime chance” but the reality is that you need to live and eat.  I know your friends and relatives are yelling at you but think through what you are doing (and good luck trying to do that with the lights, the screaming and the audience rooting you on).  It probably is a good idea to read and review something like this before you actually get on stage!

3.  If it gets towards the end of the game, if the banker offers you a sum of cash that is greater than the calculated average dollar amount, you shouldn’t even think about your choice, you should take the cash and run-unless you got a telepathic message from God in which case please ask Him (or Her)  what He (or She) is going to do about things down here for us, would you?  Only you know how well your intution works for you and if the universe actually communicates well with you.  For those of us who don’t receive clear cosmic messages, please don’t pass up a sure thing for a gamble.

4.   Human nature is such that even knowing the statistics, YOU have to make the choice if YOU want to take a hopefully slight gamble, depending on the offer from the banker.  Nothing beats getting a sure thing though.

5.  Also, if you are at the final point and there are two suitcases, you have a fifty-fifty shot of holding one or the other.  People who tell you to switch no matter what aren’t doing their math correctly.   It doesn’t matter earlier what the odds are of what was in the cases when you first picked the suitcase.  When you first pick the case you had a 1 out of 26 chance of getting the big money.  Let us say that the last two cases are yours and one other.  One has $500,000 and the other $400.  It doesn’t matter if you keep or switch.  Really, it doesn’t.  You have the big money case or you don’t at this point.  Either decision you make gives you a 50-50 shot of getting it right or making the wrong decision.

If the banker offers you $275,000 though I would take it!  The math is easy, here, huh?  That is more than half of what the sum divided by two is.  The problem might be if you are greedy and your friends and relatives are screaming at you that you are for SURE going to get the half a million bucks.  We generally and statistically see how well those decisions turn out (ugh).

Ah,and don’t forget to put at least at third aside of your winnings to cover income taxes.  I know that is on the high side but you won’t remember about it later on in the heat of the moment of winning.

So, if you have any other game show related questions as well, drop me a line and let me know how it works out for you if you make it on the show!  In the meantime, enjoy this image of french fries without ice cream.

Practical Money Making-Surviving Recession, Layoffs, Credit Problems, Generating Passive Income Streams, Working Full Time or Part Time and Retirement

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

Kim talks about Deal Or No Deal sometimes determining Meal or No Meal

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Too Late For Gold

Saturday, November 8th, 2008

Question from a reader: “I think I am too late to cash in on gold.  What do you think?”

I think that if you are looking for a short term quick turn around of money, you are right, this isn’t the sort of time for gold to have any drastic changes.  There is a retrenching and revisiting to paper currency and for the short term, barring any dramatic news events that might cause spikes-but you can’t factor that in comfortably as a profitable indicator-if anything, gold may be flat for a bit.

For the long haul, that is a different story.  Eventually we will come out of the deflationary situation we are in.  As a commodity, gold is scarce and even now it is tough to find people who will sell you the actual gold you can take possession of without some kind of cash premium on it.  The next question is when will we come out of it and go back to inflation.  I have no idea and despite what fnancial analysts may blog or quip – they don’t have a clue either.

There are gold bugs (people who are great believers in the power of gold as a currency and who lament the loss of gold backing currency-something I somewhat share at times) who feel that now more than ever you should be loading up on actual gold. 

Honestly, at this point, if you are looking to put a small portion of your portfolio, I am not inclined to put anything in gold mines.  I would look for actual gold or funds where you can actually know if there is gold there (for full disclosure-I own some shares of CEF).  If you opt to take ownership of actual gold, make sure whoever you are buying from you can trust.  I would research the heck out of them and try talking to actual people who have bought and taken delivery of the gold.  The next step is to find somewhere safe to store the gold.  Doghouses, treehouses and under the bed generally shouldn’t be your first choice.

I am not a financial advisor and I don’t even play one on television.  Due your own due diligence and remember that when you see the peaks and valleys of commodities like gold or oil, remember that people are reacting on what they think the future might bring.  Your tolerance for risk and how much money you have behind you should be factored in. 

For the immediate future, I will go on record restating that cash is king for the time being.  If any business opportunities present themselves, if you have cash, you can jump in.  A lot of profitable events have happened because people had the cash at the right place at the right time.  Remember that during economic downturns there are a lot of bargains and opportunities.

Also, in case you are interested, here is a $100,000 gold note that use to be used for transactions between banks.

If anybody has any of these lying around that they want to send me, I will be happy to take them off their hands.  For the good of the economy, of course.

Always open to questions and thanks for asking!

Practical Money Making-Surviving Recession, Layoffs, Credit Problems, Generating Passive Income Streams, Working Full Time or Part Time and Retirement

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

As of the writing of this article,  I owned shares in CEF.

 

Too Late For Gold?  Kim Isaac Greenblatt says it depends.

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Just Starting Work How Much Is Enough To Save

Friday, November 7th, 2008

Question from a reader, “Kim, I have graduated college and am working.  How much should I be putting into my 401K that they are offering me?”

My answer:  First off, congratulations on being employed in this economy!  Kudos to your company as well for keeping their 401K intact.  The common wisdom is to maximize your contributions and save in your 401K as much as they will let you put it.  The rationale is that when you retire say 30-40 years from now, whatever bumps in the economy that we are going through now (bumps? they are more like mountains)  will look like nothing looking backwards in time.

The reality is that you need to live in the here and now.

If you can’t afford to max out your 401K, at least start putting in something, especially if your employer is offering matching money.  That is free money that you are getting and that accumulates over time.  If you are scared about putting money into the stock market, check with your human resources person or plan manager and see if they have some sort of fixed interest rate fund (most do) that you can park your money in for the short term. Always do your own due diligence and remember that you can be pretty forgiving with yourself if you are patient. You are starting early in your retirement savings and that in of itself is a good thing.

If you are married (and I am guessing that you are not) and have two incomes, it might be worthwhile to sit down with a financial planner and/or a tax professional so you can see which is the best way that you can save money and get the best situation you can in terms of taxes.

A lot of people don’t quite seem to get it right (as pointed out often in this blog).

In the long term, any money that you can park now is a good thing.  Remember though as investment warnings state, “Past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns”.  A lot of things can happen over thirty years and it pays to still watch what your money is doing and not forget about it.

Also, you didn’t mention if there was a grace period where you will be putting money in but won’t be 100% vested. Generally, check with your plan manager and read the timing of how and when you are actually fully vested in the plan and see if there is any tiered matching or vesting as you stay with the company.

You are asking a great question at a great time in your career.  All the best and keep me posted how things go!

Worried about the economy?  Looking for a part time job?  Please check out my book, Practical Money Making for suggestions about how to ride through the hard times.

 Practical Money Making-Surviving Recession, Layoffs, Credit Problems, Generating Passive Income Streams, Working Full Time or Part Time and Retirement
 

Kim Isaac Greenblatt
 

Kim answers a question about saving money in a 401K.

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Stimulus For the Economy-Check Or Is It Checks?

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

I’ve already talked about the fact that we will probably be looking at another stimulus package come early next year. I have heard from different news sources that waiting in the wings will be several packages hopefully to get the American taxpayer back on his or her feet.

 

The best way I can see that happening is if more jobs are created in America. Simple economics means (and I think pretty simply) that if you can get people working, they will save and spend locally where they are living. That money going back into the economy will stimulate people to continue to sell goods and services and as they grow, hire more people and pay them to do their jobs and the circle starts growing outward again instead of contracting.

If another round of stimulus checks gets issued, I hope that along with it will be some sort of local, state and national plan to get individual Americans working. One check can only go so far in putting food on the table, keeping a house warm in winter, maintaining electricity to keep the lights on or medicine for people who are sick.

I’ve already stated that I think if you get a stimulus check you should save it or at the very least use it to do something that might generate income for you that you might not have thought of before. No, I don’t mean play cards or hit the races with it. I mean if there was that side business that you wanted to start and had researched, now is the time to think about implementing it. Especially if you have goods or services that people would want in any type of economy. If what you are offering is more suited for a down economy, so much the better.

Good luck and let us hope that our economy get stimulated and quickly!

Practical Money Making-Surviving Recession, Layoffs, Credit Problems, Generating Passive Income Streams, Working Full Time or Part Time and Retirement

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

Is your economy stimulated? Check! Er, or is it no checks?

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The Third Blog Carnival of Special Needs and Money

Sunday, November 2nd, 2008

Welcome to the November 2, 2008 edition of special needs and money.
Here we are again folks with our third blog carnival! The popcorn is popping, the rides are working.  Uh oh, one of the rides looks a bit underpowered.

Wait a second, there we go, the rides are all working now.

special needs-the emotional roller coaster

axel presents Living With Physical Pain posted at axel g.

special needs-the money go round

Michelle McFarland-McDaniels presents Use Passive Savings Programs to Fund Autism Treatment posted at Autism Assistance Resources and Information.

Kara Sheridan presents Economic Challenges of Raising a Special-Needs Child posted at KaraSwims, saying, “Raising a child with a disability that is an expensive challenge that has been made more difficult by the financial crisis. Research reveals families with special needs are even harder hit by economic declines.”

Kara certainly has that one right!

Sarah Scrafford presents 100 Free College Rides You Don’t Need Daddy to Pay Forposted at Eduk8.

In case you missed it, we had our annual So California Rett Syndrome picnic. Check it out here please.

That concludes this edition. Submit your blog article to the next edition of special needs and money using our carnival submission form.

See you soon!

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

You are reading the third carnival of special needs and money at the profitable blog.

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A November To Remember

Saturday, November 1st, 2008

Welcome to November.  This November is going to be a November to remember at many levels.

The American and world economies are reeling from financial issues and are starting to get a handle on how to get a handle on making their people and nations profitable again.

It seems internationally every nation has been hit with one catastrophe or natural disaster (some countries got hammered several times with different issues-flooding and earthquakes, for example).

People are trying to hold onto the things they have and take care of their loved ones, people with special needs and friends.

Oh, yes, we have this little thing going on called the American presidential election going on as well. 

Events that are taking place now may not have an immediate effect on our daily lives but rest assured that a few months, even a few years from now, whatever actions we have taken now will have reactions later on.

Start implementing your own plans to make this a November to remember.  Please don’t wait for new Year’s to make any resolutions.  Do it now.  Start making money now.  Start saving now.

Putting off seeing a doctor because you can’t afford it?  Find the money and take care of it now.  If there are critical things going on in your life, please take the time to do it now.

Use the psychological downtime that the world is going through for reflection as to what you want to do with your life and what you think you can do to help the world around you.

If you have special needs or are caring for somebody with special needs, take a minute and take an inventory of what you are doing, what you are getting and what you need to plan for.  Expect that there will be change in the near future and sometimes change isn’t easy.

My thoughts go out to all of us and do what you can to make this a November to remember!

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

Make this a November to remember!

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Halloween Isn’t As Spooky As Financial Insecurity

Friday, October 31st, 2008

Boo!  Happy Halloween!  It may be a scary Halloween for you but probably not because of ghouls, ghosts or demons.  If you are in debt, have money problems, are laid off, dealing with special needs you already have plenty to make you want to scream.  Even though things may look dismal and you aren’t making any money, take the time to learn to relax.

If you look at your fear and break it down (and yes, it is easy to intellectualize and tough to implement without getting scared), you will see that at worse case, you may end up on the streets.  If that is the case, start looking for social service organizations, charities or any group that can help you make it through the bad times.

Feeling suicidal?  There isn’t anything that will guarantee that the fear you are going through now will be resolved in the afterlife and they may not give you a decent line of credit in Heaven or Hell if you check out now.  In all seriousness, please talk to a counselor, a spiritual advisor or anybody to make it through the tough times.

Winter, coupled with the holidays plus no money equals depression.  I am not talking about the Recession Depression we are financially going though here, folks, I am talking about coping and making it through the lousy feelings of self-doubt, self-loathing, and any fears that make you feel lousy.  Get together with friends and if you don’t have friends – hang out in some safe crowds. 

Volunteer if you are able to.  There are always people less fortunate who could use a hand.  If you need the hand yourself, please swallow your pride and seek out any groups that can help you provide food, clothing or shelter if you need it.

Treat your family and yourself to something inexpensive and fun.  If you can, I hope you are celebrating Halloween despite the economic uncertainty that is looming ahead of us.  If you are stashing cash away, you are in good shape.  If you are able to barter for goods and services, that is good too since a lot of other people don’t have cash either but maybe you can trade skillsets to help one another.

Make sure that your kids are safe, don’t eat any unwrapped candy and remember that strangers are danger. And speaking of a very strange stranger……

 

Please note that if you see this guy driving up on your porch, make sure you give him only small “fun size” pieces of candy since he is trying to watch his diet.  Have a safe and fun time and keep saving money. While you are at, try and relax (and I know it is hard) so you can save your sanity as well. You and your family will appreciate it (even if the effects aren’t immediately visitble) It can add years to your life!

Buy some of Kim In The Hat’s books here and know that part of all the book sales proceeds go to research a cure for Rett Syndrome.

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

Ready, Set, Boo!

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Starting an Online Educational or Entertainment Business

Friday, October 17th, 2008

Question from a reader:  “Kim, I am thinking about starting an educational web site where I actually train people to repair certain machines.  Any advice on how to approach this?”

My answer is: I would approach it as I would approach any other business.  First question would be to ask if you have a business plan.  If you don’t, please don’t start until you have one in place. Think of it as a road map to guide you on your business path to making money. There are enough things to worry about when starting up a business and if you want a shot at trying to stay profitable, I would suggest that you know exactly what you plan to do, what are your expectations for your return on your investment and how do you plan to get the word out to the world that you are ready to go.

Second series of questions – Are there any similar businesses out there already? How are they doing? Is there actually a market for what you are going to show? Is it something that people will pay for a subscription service or registration fee? You may be offering videos on how to make cigarbox art and they may be spectacular but if there isn’t a market for people wanting to make cigarbox art (leave alone try to find stores to get decent cigar boxes from) you are wasting your time.

If you are trying something new, have you thought about throwing some examples up on a social video sharing site like You Tube. In fact, take some time and see if what you want to offer is already up there for free. Is there any kind of volume to indicate that people will pay you for your energy and skillsets in demonstrating and teaching to them to how to do what you do. Always remember that it is tough to compete with free so you will have to offer something that will add value to what you are showing that is different than what they are getting for free.

Third series of questions – How are you going to deliver your educational materials? Streaming video? Flash? Still pictures? Text? A combination of many different techniques? How are you going to provide certification and feeback? Bulletin board system? E-mail? Somebody ready for instant message customer service support?

Are you willing to pay for 24/7 support on the internet for a live person to answer realtime questions? If not, how many hours will you want to devote to the project to support it? Are you going to have a finite class or series of sessions? If things will be going on a continuous basis, you will need to work at developing content. There is no way around it if you are trying to develop an informational database of relevant, unique content. It takes work, work and more work!

Fourth series of questions – How are you going to raise start up funding? How are you going to collect money from your clients? You don’t need anything elaborate. If you plan on offering a lot of things for sale to supplement your site, you may want to look into an online store. Most of the time something as simple as Paypal would work.

If you are finding that from your business plan that you cannot start small, be ready to draft documents and contracts to bring in partners, shareholders, you name it. Just remember that you are adding another level of complexity that you might not want to get yourself involved with. Also remember that you may end up with another level of tax complexity that you don’t need immediately. Remember my motto – keep it simple.

This is to just get you thinking. If you have anything else to add (of relevance) please post your comments below. Remember – any comments more than a week or so will not get loaded onto the post.

Thanks!
Sincerely,
Kim Isaac Greenblatt

Kim Greenblatt answers a question on how to start an educational web business in his blog, profitable.

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Special Needs and Breaktime and Burning Out

Tuesday, October 14th, 2008

If you have special needs or are a caregiver for somebody who has special needs it is important to schedule breaks in your day. If you are the type of individual who would have been characterized as a type A, over-achiever, go-getter, you name it, all the more reason that you need to take a break. You don’t want to burn out.

If you live in Southern California you are aware that a lot of places are burning out because of dry trees, leaves, insufficient moisture and high winds. Treat yourself like you are a plot of land or a tree and make sure that you are fed and watered, make sure that your roots are deeply embedded in reality and be ready to handle the buffeting winds of change and daily issues.

With the daily issues come moments of great joy, like cooling rain. In the final analysis both the joy and burning out need to be paced.

Things to do in your life if you don’t already have them in place:

1. Every hour try and take 1-5 minutes to break away and keep your head clear.
2. Every hour or two try and take 1-5 minutes to stretch or stand up if you can. You want some physical activity to break whatever it is you were concentrating on for a brief period of time.
3. Plan some selfish time for yourself sometime during the day or at the very least during the week.
4. Put off making life altering decisions until you have given yourself the luxury of some free time to reflect on them and mull over the decisions.
5. Don’t be afraid to ask for help. There are services and people out there who can help you. Nobody doubts that you are a strong fighter but even superheroes need to retire to their secret caves or their fortress to relax and recharge.
6. Try and find some recreational activities that don’t cost money. This one is just common sense because of the nature of the times we are living in. If you constantly need to spend money to relax you might have some problems if money gets tight. An example of this was a person I knew who use to have to get out of town once a month in order to “stay sane”. The person was always flying all over the place. When the person lost their position there was a problem because the person still was spending money like they were employed. It created a downward spiral until the person learned to live within their means.

This is going to be a theme I will be hitting on again and again because these are financially and emotionally trying times.

Hopefully when you return to caring for yourself or that special person you will have a fresher perspective and stay healthier and in a better frame of mind.

To the people who are being affected by the California fires – especially families with special needs- you are in our hearts and minds. Our thoughts and prayers are with you. Be safe and healthy.

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

Special Needs, Break Time and Burning Out are discussed in the profitable blog.

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When Planning Marketing Changes, Surveys Can Help

Monday, October 13th, 2008

If you are planning any marketing changes, surveys, if done properly can help.  If they are done incorrectly, you might get bad information that has no bearing on your market.  When movie marketing people hold roundtables or screenings and watch the participants for their reactions, they are hoping that they will have a hit or if the movie is a bomb, where they might be able to salvage things by reshooting, editing, throwing in more special effects of things blowing up or changing a downer ending into a happy ending.

When it comes to making a profitable business decision,  you want to get a reality check and not what you want to hear.  Recently I was part of a book cover study group where I was presented with 16 cover choices for a potential book and I picked the one that I thought would sell the most covers.  It was entertaining but more importantly, it was relevant to the topic that was being presented.

I generally don’t have any celebrity spokespeople who can help me sell my books and even if I did, I don’t know how much street cred it would carry in the business world.  Having Paris Hilton marketing my books on Practical Money Making would be pretty funny and it might get a few novelty sales but I don’t think she is the person best associated with selling books.  To know for sure, I would probably have to pay for a study group where my target audience could be culled and polled to see if they would actually buy a book if Paris pitched it.

When you plan your own study groups, make sure that you know your target audience.  If it is too young for children, they may not get what it is you are trying to sell.  If it is something that is trendy, you better have a lot of pizzazz in your commericals or ads or at least show how important your item is and that it must be used in order to be hip.

If you are coming up with a new edible item, like food or soft/energy drink, be willing to give out tons of samples to get people’s opinion on the product. You may find out that peanut butter tasting energy drinks might sell very well to the peanut butter body builder set.

If you can, it is also good to do a small test market after the survey to see if what was discovered rang true. Sometimes people do tell you that they liked your product just to make you happy and so they can get paid.

When done properly and reviewed and taken with a grain of salt (or a dash of peanut butter), surveys can save you a fortune in development, marketing and distribution costs.

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

You are reading the profitable blog, by Kim Isaac Greenblatt.

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