Posts Tagged ‘odds’

Free Odds Aren’t Really Free

Wednesday, July 22nd, 2009

Question from a reader:”Kim, I understand you wrote a book on craps.  I don’t know much about dice and have ordered your book but what can you tell me about free odds?  Thanks.”

 

My answer is an excerpt from my book, Practical Craps.   Best of luck to you and please don’t spend money you cannot afford to lose, and in this case, that means generally ANY money.  Ah well, for those who are interested and as an incentive to get my book, here is the gist of “free odds”:
First off, free odds aren’t really free.  It isn’t like the casino will pay you for nothing.  The expression “free odds” means that there are bets you can make that will pay you the true odds if the decision goes your way on the dice.

You don’t normally see them on the Craps layout because the casinos don’t encourage these bets.  They don’t make money for the casino.  Generally speaking dice play doesn’t offer the same return on investment as a bank of slot machines that don’t require human intervention on a regular basis (other than to fix jams or collect money).

Some casinos offer multiple odds (5x, 10x, etc) but that is usually to get players into their casinos.  You can also lose a lot of money playing large bets without a deep enough bankroll to handle the swings in the dice.

Basically, on a pass line or come point bet (once a bet has been moved to the point number on the top of the craps layout) you can make an odds bet.

You are paid even money on a pass line or come point, right?  On an odds bet, you place more money but that money (which can be removed any time before the dice are rolled) will be paid off at true odds.

The odds bet requires you to have a larger starting bankroll and you need to know what the odds are on the bets to make the appropriate sized bet.

You will also hear on come-out rolls the dealer yell “Odds off”.  That just means that on the come-out rolls, in case the shooter throws a 7 and you lose other bets that are up from the come bets, you won’t lose your odds bets. 

You can call the bet on or off and the dealer will throw a chip on your bet saying it is “WORKING” or not.

So how do we “take odds” when we are betting with the dice or “lay odds” if we are betting against the dice?

Simple, we just adjust our bet to the multiple that would give us a correct payoff.

So if we were betting $10 on the pass line.  On the come out roll the shooter threw a 10.  We could go ahead and place $10 behind the line as our “single odds” bet.  That means that if the shooter makes his point of ten.  We get paid $10 for our $10 pass line bet and since the odds are 2:1 against us, we would make $20 for the back line, free odds bet.  Our total winnings for both bets would be $30.

If we are playing with “double odds” that would mean we could go up to $20 behind the line.  We would be betting $30 ($10 on the Pass line and $20 free odds).  If the shooter throws a 10 we win $10 for the Pass line bet and then we get $40 for our double odds bet for a total winnings of $50.

Now the reality check is in either case if the shooter throws a 7 we lose both our pass line bet and our odds bet for a loss of either $20 or $30 respectively.

Getting it?  It really isn’t complicated once you start paying attention to the numbers.  You just have to be brutally honest with yourself that you are playing in a game where the odds are stacked against you.

LAYING ODDS

If you are planning on playing the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come, you can lay the odds.  It requires a very large bankroll but the law of averages is on your side if you have survived the come out roll.

In the example of the 10 – if you are betting on the Don’t Pass for $10 and you have a point of 10, you can lay $20 and the dealer will show you how to stack your chips.  If the 7 shows up, you win $10 for the pass line bet, plus $10 for your odds bet (remember you are covering the OPPOSITE of the 2:1 since the odds are in your favor).

If the shooter throws his 10, you lose your $10 bet and your $20 lay odds bet.

Same situation, just the other side of it.

Here is a table of what to bet for odds:

TAKING SINGLE ODDS

4 or 10  2:1
$10 bet   $10 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $20= $30

5 or 9  3:2
$10 bet   $10 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $15 = $25

6 or 8  6:5
$10 bet   $10 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $12 = $22

 

Remember that in all of our bets, if you win, you also get back all the money that you put up for the bet.  The reason I mention it is that you shouldn’t include it as winnings.

Because of the uneven payout ratios you should learn the odds and remember to make the appropriate size bets in order to get paid off correctly if you are playing odds bets.  Remember also that you can lower or take your odds bets down at any time.  You cannot do that with your pass line bets once established.  You can take down your don’t pass bets but why would you want to?  You work so hard to make it through the come out roll the odds are now in your favor!

LAYING SINGLE ODDS

4 or 10  1:2
$10 bet   $20 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $10 = $20

5 or 9  2:3
$10 bet   $15 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $10 = $20

6 or 8  5:6
$10 bet   $12 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $10 = $20
In the short run, you can win or lose a lot of money taking or laying odds.  It depends on how the shooter is throwing, the trend on the table and of course, what is your bankroll.

Don’t play beyond your means.  There will ALWAYS be another craps game.  It is very easy – easier than in poker – to get caught up in the energy and excitement of a craps game and throw all caution to the wind.  Please don’t do it. 
Notice how the odds table work?  The 4/10 numbers true odds are 2:1, the 5/9 numbers true odds are 3:2 and the 6/8 numbers true odds are 6:5.  I have adjusted the amounts based on $5 minimum bets for the tables to give you an idea of seeing how you get paid back.

When you lay odds you are just covering the bets by putting up what you would pay out if you were the house.  It is a lot of money to win a little bit of money, but remember, statistically, once you make it past the come out roll, the odds are in your favor (though as we discussed, in the long run, all things being equal, you will average out if you are betting the same way over thousands of dice rolls).

 

TAKING DOUBLE ODDS

4 or 10  2:1
$10 bet   $20 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $40 = $50

5 or 9  3:2
$10 bet   $20 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $30 = $40

6 or 8  6:5
$10 bet   $25 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $30 = $40

LAYING DOUBLE ODDS

4 or 10  1:2
$10 bet   $40 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $20 = $30

5 or 9  2:3
$10 bet   $30 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $20 = $30

6 or 8  5:6
$10 bet   $30 odds bet   payoff:  $10 + $25 = $35
Did you notice that the 6 or 8 bets were not correct?  I want to see if you are paying attention!
Some casinos will let you go up to $25 as a bet for 6:5 on the 6 or 8 if the table offers 2X odds.  On the 6 or 8 they may allow 2.5X odds since it is easy to pay off.  Ask the dealer before making the bet to see what they say.
Are you getting it?  Or is it still confusing?  It took me several trips to casinos and playing a bit till I understood it.  Please re-read whatever you aren’t getting and work the numbers yourself so you will see that it isn’t that complicated, it is simply a matter of familiarizing yourself with the numbers, their combinations and pay-offs.

Some players make bets on the Don’t Pass and Don’t Come in multiples of $6 in order to make their odds bets easier.  Whatever works for you.  My suggestion would be to start out small and go easy on the betting and read more about it in my book, Practical Craps.   Good luck and have fun.

And don’t gamble with bread and egg money!!!!!  It should be fun and not a business.

July 22 2009

Also, please  don’t quite go anywhere yet.  Having some tax issues or tax questions?  Any problems with trying to make it through the financial Depression we are in that is making you depressed?  Please read on.

I am expanding  my practice and taking on new tax clients.  If you are interested in having somebody who is a successful businessman and tax professional with integrity review your returns discretely and see if your tax guy or gal is doing a good or goofy job, please drop me an email or post a comment with your contact information and time.

I have experience in international business, small businesses, partnerships, multi-state tax returns (they can get complicated) and anything else you can probably think of.

I also do business consulting and have ran several businesses (still running a few) myself so you are in good hands.

If you are looking for a day job, part time work, suggestions for saving money or investing, please check out my book, Practical Money Making, that is listed right after his paragraph in this very post. There are some great suggestions and ways to survive the Depression we are in.

Practical Money Making-Surviving Recession, Layoffs, Credit Problems, Generating Passive Income Streams, Working Full Time or Part Time and Retirement

Interested in any of my books? You may want to make a stop over here. Please click through to purchase my books and some other interesting items that actually ARE on sale.

Have you read my book, “Bad Tax Idea, Good Tax Idea“? Please order it today. The tips inside can save you hundreds if not thousands of dollars! Tax planning should be done year round and not just two weeks into January or later.

Part of all the proceeds from the sales of that book go to Rett Syndrome research. One girl is born with Rett Syndrome worldwide every fifteen minutes. My daughter Arianna has Rett.

Kim Isaac Greenblatt

Free Odds Aren’t Really Free

Hold’em Turn Rats As Bad As River Rats and Random Reinforcement

Sunday, August 3rd, 2008

If you play Texas Hold’em, you have no doubt heard of the term, “River Rat”.  That is the unglamorous phrase used for people who by any stretch of the imagination should have folded their cards earlier but by sticking around and throwing in their money, they end up winning the hand.  

You may have encountered “Turn Rats” in low limit no limit games or games where people want action:

You are in the big blind at a $40NL table. Players just come in and no raises.  The stacks are all roughly the same.  Here is our flop:

You bet $5 and everybody folds except one player who calls.

 

              

You                                              Your Opponent

You are the favorite here but since it is low limit, no fold’em $40 hold em you aren’t sure if this player is holding pocket queens.  Well, you are actually.  He didn’t go all in so what can you do so you don’t make it worth his while to stay in the hand?

You can try to raise him $10 and in this case, and he may call.  If you go all in and he has enough money in his pocket to rebuy, he might call you to try and catch a miracle card.

With players like this who are action addicts, they will call you no matter what.

And if the turn comes like this (and it will once in awhile):

 

You will have to just force a smile, force the acid from coming up your throat and watch yourself lose no matter what.  The comfort in this is that players like your opponent will go bust and a lot of times in the same session after a few hours.  They have a lot of lucky hours but they might end up with unlucky days when the dust settles.

I’ve talked to some players and for the most part, they still remember the few times that they win with cards that come at the last minute.  I am tempted to ask some of them, and I do this of my friends, “But how many times have you tried that and lost?”  Generally you get a “I dunno” and a shrug of the shoulders.  It is random reinforcement.  People tend to remember the things they want rather than what actually has happened.

Hey, the truth can hurt but it is better in business and in gambling that you at least be honest
with yourself so you don’t end up bluffing yourself out of your money in the long run.

 

Kim Greenblatt

Questions or comments? Let me know about them! Thanks for taking the time to visit and for more information or to get back to the beginning of the blog, go here.

Profitable Gambling Advice-Don’t Play the Lottery-the Odds Are That It Is A Sucker Bet

Tuesday, July 29th, 2008

Want some great gambling and investing advice? Don’t play the Lottery. If you live in any state that has a state lottery, Powerball or any kind of bingo ball lottery, you’ve seen the ads, you’ve seen people become millionaires overnight. It doesn’t happen very often.

In fact it happens so rarely that you have better odds of being hit by lightning, winning the Congressional medal of honor or winning the Nobel Prize than winning the lotteries.

They are built the way they are to make it seem that it is easy to pick numbers. How easy is it to pick numbers? Let’s see from the California Lottery what the odds are…

How to Win California SuperLotto and Odds of Winning
To win you must have one of the following matches against the number actually drawn:

Match 5 Plus Mega (Jackpot Win!) Odds = 1:41,416,353
Match 5 (No Mega Match) Odds = 1:1,592,937
Match 4 Plus Mega Odds = 1:197,221
Match 4 (No Mega Match) Odds = 1:7,585
Match 3 Plus Mega Odds = 1:4,810
Match 3 (No Mega Match) Odds = 1:185
Match 2 Plus Mega Odds = 1:361
Match 1 Plus Mega Odds = 1:74
Match 0 Plus Mega Odds = 1:49
Overall Odds of a win is 1:23

Okay, so the starting pay out is something like $7 million dollars? The odds of you winning are one out of 41 million? That doesn’t sound like such a great deal. Yes, if you win, it is all worth it but realistically they should be paying you out $41,000,000. So, even if somebody wins out of the chute and they get $7,000,000, they have not paid out what the bet should have been worth.

What does that mean to you? If you really want to play or feel that your numbers are the lucky ones (and you may be better off going with random number Quick Picks to maximize your chances) you should wait till the jackpots are over $41 million. Otherwise, you aren’t getting your bang for your buck.

Here is a profitable idea – how about taking each $1 that you want to invest in the lottery and place it in a savings account or donate it to charity each time you want to play the lottery? If you keep track of your donations over a year, two years or five years you will be pleasantly surprised at what your newly found savings or donations can do!

So, if you are also ready to see how your odds stack up, check out some of these comparisons:

Odds of going into a bowling alley and bowling a 300 game: 11,500 to 1

Odds of going to the golf course and getting a hole in one: 5,000 to 1

Odds of getting canonized: 20,000,000 to 1

Odds of being an astronaut: 13,200,000 to 1

Odds of winning an Olympic medal: 662,000 to 1

Odds of injury from fireworks: 19,556 to 1

Odds of injury from shaving: 6,585 to 1

Odds of injury from using a chain saw: 4,464 to 1

Odds of injury from mowing the lawn: 3,623 to 1

Odds of fatally slipping in bath or shower: 2,232 to 1

Odds of drowning in a bathtub: 685,000 to 1

Odds of being killed on a 5-mile bus trip: 500,000,000 to 1

So, your best deal is to save a dollar and don’t take a bath while taking a 5 mile bus trip in a lightning storm while mowing your lawn with a chain saw!

Kim Greenblatt

Questions or comments? Let me know about them! Thanks for taking the time to visit and for more information or to get back to the beginning of the blog, go here.